An Institutionalized Power Bargain: The Yalta Conference and Post-1945 Order-Building

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Ph.D. student in International relations at The Department of Politics and International Relations, Florida International University, USA

10.5281/zenodo.21863169
Abstract
Each This paper examines the Yalta Conference (4–11 February 1945) as a pivotal episode of post-war order-building and asks what mattered more in shaping its outcomes: material capabilities or institutions. Combining a historical reconstruction of key negotiations—Germany’s occupation and reparations, Poland’s political future, Soviet entry into the war against Japan, and the design of the United Nations—with an explicit International Relations framework, the study evaluates whether Yalta’s model of great-power management stabilized the emerging system or intensified a security dilemma between the Western and Soviet blocs. Methodologically, the paper employs a qualitative case-study design and process tracing, using primary diplomatic records alongside major secondary scholarship to identify bargaining sequences, causal mechanisms, and “close-call” turning points. The analysis argues that power realities set the limits of agreement, particularly where military facts on the ground created asymmetric leverage, while institutional arrangements helped formalize, legitimate, and extend those bargains over time. Yalta therefore reduced the risk of immediate great-power war by coordinating expectations and procedures, yet simultaneously accelerated ideological and strategic competition by embedding contested norms—especially over self-determination—within an unequal settlement. The paper concludes that Yalta’s legacy is best understood as an institutionalized power bargain: stabilizing at the apex, but structurally prone to legitimacy crises at the periphery, shaping both the early Cold War and the architecture of post-1945 global governance.

Graphical Abstract

An Institutionalized Power Bargain: The Yalta Conference and Post-1945 Order-Building

Keywords

Subjects

[1]    Plokhy SM. Yalta: The price of peace. Penguin Publishing Group; 2014.
[2]    McMeekin S. Stalin’s war: A new history of World War II. Basic Books; 2021.
[3]    Louis WR. Imperialism at bay: The United States and the decolonization of the British Empire, 1941-1945. Oxford University Press; 1987.
[4]    Leffler MP. A preponderance of power: National security, the Truman administration, and the Cold War. Stanford University Press; 1992.
[5]    Ikenberry GJ. After victory: Institutions, strategic restraint, and the rebuilding of order after major wars. Princeton University Press; 2001.
[6]    Wendt A. Anarchy is what states make of it: The social construction of power politics. International Organization; 46(2): 391-425, 1992.
[7]    George AL, Bennett A. Case studies and theory development in the social sciences. MIT Press; 2005.
[8]    Koremenos B, Lipson C, Snidal D. The rational design of international institutions. International Organization; 55(4): 761-799, 2001.
[9]    Bull H. The anarchical society: A study of order in world politics. 3rd ed. Palgrave; 2002.
[10] Bhardwaj A. The Yalta Conference: A pivotal meeting that shaped post-war Europe. Foreign Affairs Forum; 2025 Mar 17. Available from: https://foreignaffairsforum.org/the-yalta-conference-a-pivotal-meeting-that-shaped-post-war-europe/
[11] The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. Yalta Conference. Encyclopaedia Britannica; 2026 Feb 5.
[12] Watt DC. Britain and the historiography of the Yalta Conference and the Cold War. Diplomatic History; 13(1): 67-98, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7709.1989.tb00044.x
[13] Jervis R. Cooperation under the security dilemma. World Politics; 30(2): 167-214, 1978.
[14] Gaddis JL. We now know: Rethinking Cold War history. Oxford University Press; 1997.
[15] Beach D, Pedersen RB. Process-tracing methods: Foundations and guidelines. University of Michigan Press; 2013.
[16] Mahoney J. The logic of process tracing tests in the social sciences. Sociological Methods & Research; 41(4): 570-597, 2012.
[17] Dumbarton Oaks Archives. The Dumbarton Oaks Conversations, 1944. Dumbarton Oaks; 2017 Jun 15. Available from: https://www.doaks.org/newsletter/news-archives/2015/the-dumbarton-oaks-conversations-1944
[18] U.S. Department of State. Foreign relations of the United States: Diplomatic papers, 1945. Vol. 1, General: The United Nations. U.S. Government Printing Office; 1967.
[19] United Nations. Repertory of practice of United Nations organs: Article 27. Vol. II, 1945-1954. United Nations; n.d. Available from: https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml
[20] Leffler MP. Adherence to agreements: Yalta and the experiences of the early Cold War. Princeton Scholarship Online; 2019.        https://doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691196510.003.0007
[21] HISTORY.com Editors. Yalta Conference: Definition, date & outcome. HISTORY; 2009 Oct 29. Available from:            https://www.history.com/articles/yalta-conference
[22] Trachtenberg M. A constructed peace: The making of the European settlement, 1945-1963. Princeton University Press; 1999.
[23] Lowe K. Savage continent: Europe in the aftermath of World War II. Picador; 2013.
[24] Sherwin MJ. A world destroyed: Hiroshima and its legacies. Stanford University Press; 2003.
[25] Messer RL. The end of an alliance: James F. Byrnes, Roosevelt, Truman, and the origins of the Cold War. University of North Carolina Press; 2017.
[26] Roberts G. Stalin’s wars: From World War to Cold War, 1939-1953. Yale University Press; 2006.
[27] U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian. Foreign relations of the United States: Diplomatic papers, 1945, The Conference at Malta and Yalta. n.d. Available from: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1945v05/d124
[28] U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian. Historical documents FRUS 1945 (document/footnote page). n.d. Available from: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1945v05/d194fn68
[29] The Churchill Project. The folly of German reparations. Hillsdale College; 2016. Available from: https://winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu/the-folly-of-german-reparations/
[30] Wikipedia contributors. Food in occupied Germany. Wikipedia; n.d. Retrieved Feb 8, 2026, from:         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_in_occupied_Germany
[31] U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian. Proposal by the Soviet delegation. 1945 Jul 28. In: Foreign relations of the United States, diplomatic papers, The Conference of Berlin (The Potsdam Conference), 1945, Volume II. Available from:        https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1945Berlinv02/d953
[32] National Park Service. The United Nations memorial service at Muir Woods. National Park Service; 2025. Available from:        https://www.nps.gov/articles/the-united-nations-memorial-service-at-muir-woods.htm
[33] Peters A. Conclusion: Power, procedures, and periphery: The UN Security Council in the Ukraine war. In: Peters A, Marxsen C, editors. The UN Security Council and the maintenance of peace in a changing world. Cambridge University Press; 2024. p. 278-298. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009423458
[34] The New International. Notes of the month: The Yalta Conference. Marxists Internet Archive; 1945 Mar. Available from:        https://www.marxists.org/history/etol/newspape/ni/vol11/no02/notm.htm
[35] Beichman A. Roosevelt’s failure at Yalta. Hoover Digest; 2004 Oct 30. Available from: https://www.hoover.org/research/roosevelts-failure-yalta
[36] Ruane K. Churchill and the nuclear Cold War. International Churchill Society; 2020 Feb 19. Available from:     https://winstonchurchill.org/publications/finest-hour/finest-hour-186/churchill-and-the-nuclear-cold-war/
[37] Holloway D. Nuclear weapons and the escalation of the Cold War, 1945-1962. In: Leffler MP, Westad OA, editors. The Cambridge history of the Cold War. Vol. 1. Cambridge University Press; 2010. p. 376-397. https://doi.org/10.1017/CHOL9780521837194.019
[38] Stimson HL. The decision to use the atomic bomb. Harper’s Magazine; 194(1167): 97–107, 1947 Feb. Available from:    https://www.atomicheritage.org/key-documents/stimson-bomb
[39] Houghton V. Whistling in the dark: The U.S. (mis)perception of the Soviet nuclear program. In: The nuclear spies: America’s atomic intelligence operation against Hitler and Stalin. Cornell University Press; 2019. p. 151-177. https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501739590.003.0007
[40] McDougall WA. Nuclear weapons and the balance of terror. Encyclopaedia Britannica; n.d. Available from:       https://www.britannica.com/topic/20th-century-international-relations-2085155/Nuclear-weapons-and-the-balance-of-terror
[41] Callahan D. Dangerous capabilities: Paul Nitze and the Cold War. HarperCollins; 1990.
[42] International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. Long term impact. ICAN; n.d. Available from:   https://www.icanw.org/catastrophic_harm_long_term_impact
[43] Williams RE Jr. The evolution of disarmament and arms control thought, 1945-1963. Doctoral dissertation, University of Virginia. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Scientific and Technical Information; 1987. Available from: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5251884
[44] Blair BG. The logic of accidental nuclear war. Brookings Institution Press; 1993.
[45] Wikipedia contributors. Shinkolobwe. Wikipedia; 2025. Retrieved Feb 8, 2026, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinkolobwe
[46] Hart E. Non-returners: Forced repatriation of Soviet citizens and the development of refugee protections. History Workshop; 2019 Jul 8. Available from:      https://www.historyworkshop.org.uk/non-returners-forced-repatriation-of-soviet-citizens-and-the-development-of-refugee-protections/
[47] Ikenberry GJ. Realpolitik: A history [Review of the book Realpolitik: A history, by J. Bew]. Foreign Affairs; 2017 Apr 14. Available from: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2017-04-14/realpolitik-history
[48] Sarotte ME. Not one inch: America, Russia, and the making of post-Cold War stalemate. Yale University Press; 2021.
[49] Mihalka M. Cooperative security: From theory to practice. Marshall Center Papers No. 3. George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies; 2001. Available from:          https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/marshall-center-papers/cooperative-security-new-horizons-international-order/cooperative-security-theory-practice