Advanced Journal of Management, Humanity and Social Science

AI-Based Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change-Induced Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Monir Ahmad Meahrayen 1
Jinliang Hai 2
Prasanna Koirala 3
Soraya Sarwari 2

1 College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University Yichang, Hubei, P.R. China

2 College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering China Three Gorges University Yichang, Hubei, P.R. China

3 Tamor Energy P. Ltd, Kupondole Road, Lalitpur, Nepal , Pokhara University

10.5281/zenodo.23412057
Abstract
Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of urban flooding, creating unprecedented challenges for municipalities worldwide. This study develops an AI-based decision-making framework that integrates machine learning, explainable artificial intelligence, and geospatial analytics to enhance urban flood risk management and resilience planning. The framework employs ensemble machine learning algorithms—including Random Forest, XG Boost, and Cat Boost—for flood susceptibility mapping, coupled with SHAP-based interpretability to decode model predictions and translate them into actionable policy insights at administrative scales. A city-scale digital twin component enables real-time flood impact simulation and cascading infrastructure disruption analysis, while a multi-criteria decision support module prioritizes adaptation investments based on economic risk assessment and equity considerations. The framework was validated using multi-temporal Sentinel-1 SAR data and hydrological records across diverse urban environments, demonstrating superior predictive performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values exceeding 0.95 for ensemble models. Results reveal that elevation, proximity to hydrological features, and impervious surface density consistently emerge as dominant flood drivers, with their relative importance varying significantly across districts. The decision support system successfully transformed pixel-level predictions into ward-level actionable recommendations, enabling evidence-based zoning, drainage infrastructure prioritization, and targeted nature-based solutions deployment. The framework addresses critical gaps in explainability, scalability, and policy relevance that have limited the operational adoption of AI in urban flood governance. The study concludes that integrating AI-driven analytics with participatory decision-making processes can substantially enhance adaptive capacity in flood-prone urban systems, though algorithmic transparency, data equity, and institutional readiness remain essential preconditions for equitable implementation.

Graphical Abstract

AI-Based Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change-Induced Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience

Keywords

flood risk management
machine learning
explainable AI
urban resilience
decision support systems
Subjects
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Advanced Journal of Management, Humanity and Social Science
Volume 2, Issue 5
September and October 2026
Pages 416-427

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